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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -325 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Commanders to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.3 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (48.3% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Washington Commanders.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.2%) versus TEs since the start of last season (70.2%).

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