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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Washington Commanders vs Las Vegas Raiders

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-315).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +255 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.9 plays per game.

Zach Ertz has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

As it relates to air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 41.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.

The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 46.8% red zone run rate.

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.2%) versus TEs since the start of last season (73.2%).

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