Zach Ertz Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 8, 2025 1:07 AM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -300.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a remarkable 18.2% Red Zone Target Share (85th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz has been among the TEs with the most usage near the end zone in football.
Zach Ertz has accumulated far more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
Zach Ertz's 46.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 39.0.
Zach Ertz ranks in the 82nd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.31 per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.5% red zone run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.
Zach Ertz's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 77.2% to 70.3%.

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