Zach Ertz Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2025

Updated Dec 1, 2025 1:22 AM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-395).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +325 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +320.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders may throw the ball less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
The Commanders are a 6-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
With a top-tier 21.9% Red Zone Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz stands as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in football.
Zach Ertz has accrued a whopping 46.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 3rd-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.6% red zone run rate.
The Washington Commanders have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 53.9 plays per game.
Zach Ertz's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a noteable decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 77.2% mark.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.4%) versus TEs this year (66.4%).
The Broncos safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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