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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+192/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
  • Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
  • Zach Ertz has posted a staggering 42.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Zach Ertz's 40.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 95th percentile for tight ends.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 4th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.2% red zone run rate.
  • The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

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