Zach Ertz Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 6:07 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+192/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz has posted a staggering 42.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Zach Ertz's 40.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 95th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 4th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.2% red zone run rate.
The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.