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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
  • Zach Ertz has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.8% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • As it relates to air yards, Zach Ertz grades out in the towering 89th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a staggering 37.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • Zach Ertz's 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a material reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 77.2% figure.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70%) vs. tight ends this year (70.0%).

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