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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -147 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
  • The model projects Zach Ertz to earn 6.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The Commanders have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
  • Zach Ertz's 70.1% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 77.2% rate.
  • When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Seattle's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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