My Account Log Out
 
 
Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are giant underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • With a top-tier 80.5% Route Participation% (90th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz has been as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.
  • In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is forecasted by the model to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.2 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Washington Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.7 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Zach Ertz's receiving performance has tailed off this season, notching just 2.9 adjusted catches compared to 3.9 last season.
  • Zach Ertz's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 77.2% to 70.5%.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™