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Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to run the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

In this contest, Zach Ertz is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.3 targets.

The Bears pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) to TEs this year (85.6%).

The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 5.5 points.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 54.3% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Washington Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.2 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Zach Ertz's 31.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 39.0.

More Zach Ertz Player Props

Zach Ertz ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 6

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 6