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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.7% pass rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Commanders are expected by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Zach Ertz has run a route on 83.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Zach Ertz's 2.9 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a significant decline in his pass-catching talent over last season's 3.9 figure.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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