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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.8 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.

In this game, Zach Ertz is predicted by the projections to slot into the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.6 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Zach Ertz's 60.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last season's 77.2% figure.

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Green Bay's group of LBs has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the 9th-best in the league.

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