My Account Log Out
 
 
Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
  • Our trusted projections expect Zach Ertz to earn 6.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
  • Zach Ertz's 40.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 95th percentile for tight ends.
  • Zach Ertz rates as one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.
  • Zach Ertz's 73.5% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 77.2% rate.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™