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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
  • In this week's game, Zach Ertz is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.4 targets.
  • Zach Ertz rates in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 39.4 figure this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
  • Zach Ertz's 2.8 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a substantial drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 3.9 figure.
  • Zach Ertz's 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a material reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 77.2% figure.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70%) vs. tight ends this year (70.0%).
  • The Lions linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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