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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in football last year, totaling a massive 59.8 plays per game.

The model projects Zach Ertz to earn 4.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With a sizeable 18.8% Target% (92nd percentile) last year, Zach Ertz rates as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.

Zach Ertz is positioned as one of the top TE receiving threats last year, averaging an outstanding 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 6 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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