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Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-133/-103).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -133.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to accumulate 6.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.With a high 20.1% Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz rates among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4.5-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 52.4% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Giants, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's LB corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 4th-best in football.
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