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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are big -8-point underdogs.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast Zach Ertz to earn 5.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With a high 18.5% Target% (92nd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz ranks as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.

The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.3 total plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.

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