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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-167/+128).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 59.7 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

In this game, Zach Ertz is expected by the projections to place in the 86th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.

Zach Ertz's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 91st percentile for TEs.

Zach Ertz ranks as one of the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 3.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Commanders being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 51.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a mere 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-lowest rate in football.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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