Zach Ertz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
Zach Ertz has been among the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.0% pass rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to be much less involved in his offense's passing game this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.5% in games he has played).

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