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Zach Ertz
NFL · Player Props
Zach Ertz
TE · Washington Commanders
Receiving Yards
Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2025 Updated Nov 3, 2025 1:17 AM EST
NFL Props Zach Ertz Receiving Yards

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-128/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -128.

Favors Over
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
  • The model projects Zach Ertz to earn 6.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • When it comes to air yards, Zach Ertz grades out in the towering 90th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a colossal 36.0 per game.
Favors Under
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The Commanders have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
  • Zach Ertz has totaled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).
  • Zach Ertz's 70.1% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 77.2% rate.
  • Zach Ertz's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, notching a measly 6.68 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.84 figure last year.
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