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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-114/-114).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
  • Zach Ertz's 89.9% Route Participation% this season reflects a meaningful growth in his passing attack volume over last season's 76.6% rate.
  • The model projects Zach Ertz to earn 5.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 47.0 plays per game.
  • Zach Ertz has put up far fewer air yards this season (33.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
  • Zach Ertz has totaled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).
  • Zach Ertz's 70.5% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 77.2% rate.

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