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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.7% pass rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Commanders are expected by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Zach Ertz has run a route on 83.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Zach Ertz has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (32.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).
  • Zach Ertz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a remarkable reduction in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 2.9% figure.
  • This year, the formidable Chargers defense has allowed a feeble 31.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-best in the NFL.

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