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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-118/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Commanders to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.3 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Zach Ertz has accrued substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).

Zach Ertz's skills in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 2.88 mark last year.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.2%) versus TEs since the start of last season (70.2%).

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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