Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 24, 2024 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being an enormous -7-point underdog in this game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This week, Zach Ertz is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 88th percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.
When it comes to air yards, Zach Ertz grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a remarkable 41.0 per game.
Zach Ertz's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 28.69 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-slowest in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment.
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Bengals, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.2 per game) since the start of last season.
With a lackluster 64.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (11th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to TEs.
Zach Ertz has been one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 4.70 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 2nd percentile.