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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 59.7 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

In this game, Zach Ertz is expected by the projections to place in the 86th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.

Zach Ertz has compiled a staggering 40.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among tight ends.

Zach Ertz's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 91st percentile for TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Commanders being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 51.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

With a weak 2.49 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (6th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz rates as one of the best pass-game tight ends in the NFL in space.

This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a mere 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-lowest rate in football.

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