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Zach Charbonnet

Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • Zach Charbonnet's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 89.0% to 100.0%.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Commanders defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Washington's group of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league in the red zone (50.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks this year (just 52.7 per game on average).
  • Among all running backs, Zach Charbonnet ranks in the 89th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, making up 58.3% of the usage in his team's running game near the end zone.
  • Zach Charbonnet's 5.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 12.1.

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