Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Zach Charbonnet

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2025

Updated Nov 3, 2025 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
Zach Charbonnet's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 89.0% to 100.0%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Commanders defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Washington's group of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league in the red zone (50.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Seattle Seahawks.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks this year (just 52.7 per game on average).
Among all running backs, Zach Charbonnet ranks in the 89th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, making up 58.3% of the usage in his team's running game near the end zone.
Zach Charbonnet's 5.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 12.1.