Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Zach Charbonnet

NFL · Player Props

Zach Charbonnet

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 19, 2025 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +188 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Zach Charbonnet has accumulated a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among running backs. (This might not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
This year, the formidable Rams run defense has surrendered a mere 0.36 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 51.0% red zone run rate.
The 6th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (just 53.3 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Zach Charbonnet has garnered 55.7% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Zach Charbonnet's 6.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 12.1.

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