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Zach Charbonnet

Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Zach Charbonnet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Seahawks are predicted by the predictive model to run 65.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • When it comes to air yards, Zach Charbonnet grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a monstrous 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Zach Charbonnet's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 89.0% to 100.0%.
  • This year, the weak Falcons defense has surrendered a massive 0.33 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 54.0% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the most run-centric offense in football in the red zone (52.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • The Seahawks have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.1 per game) this year.

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