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Zach Charbonnet

Zach Charbonnet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Zach Charbonnet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.
  • Zach Charbonnet has posted a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Zach Charbonnet's 6.8 adjusted yards per target this season represents a substantial progression in his receiving talent over last season's 6.0 figure.
  • The San Francisco 49ers defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (40.0) to RBs this year.
  • This year, the poor San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered a massive 87.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-biggest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.
  • The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
  • The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Zach Charbonnet has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (8.0) this season than he did last season (17.0).

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