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Xavier Legette

Xavier Legette Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Xavier Legette Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+480/-750).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -630 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -750.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Panthers are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • The model projects the Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
  • The Carolina offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • The Buccaneers linebackers project as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 125.9 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • This year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a mere 61.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 6th-best rate in the league.

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