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Woody Marks

Woody Marks Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Woody Marks Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
  • The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Texans offensive approach to skew 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • This year, the fierce Colts defense has given up a measly 76.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.

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