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Will Dissly

Will Dissly Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New York Giants vs Los Angeles Chargers

Will Dissly Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-920).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -910 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -920.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.0% pass rate.

Will Dissly's 24.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the NFL: 75th percentile for tight ends.

With an excellent 81.6% Adjusted Completion% (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Will Dissly rates among the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.

Since the start of last season, the weak New York Giants defense has given up a massive 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's game.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Giants, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.1 per game) since the start of last season.

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