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Will Dissly

Will Dissly Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Will Dissly Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1100/-2250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1500 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
  • Will Dissly's 88.9% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys an impressive progression in his receiving skills over last year's 81.0% figure.
  • This year, the strong Houston Texans run defense has conceded a puny 0.73 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL.
  • The Texans safeties project as the 7th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.47 seconds per snap.
  • Will Dissly has been been lightly used his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • After totaling 20.0 air yards per game last season, Will Dissly has regressed heavily this season, now sitting at 4.0 per game.
  • Will Dissly's 7.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 27.5.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.

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