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Will Dissly Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1400/-2000).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1500 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1400.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.With a 59.6% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-focused team in football in this setting has been the Chargers.The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Dallas Cowboys defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.9 per game) this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.Will Dissly has been been lightly used his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among tight ends.After accruing 20.0 air yards per game last year, Will Dissly has seen a big decrease this year, now averaging 3.0 per game.Will Dissly's 5.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 27.5.As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year.
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