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Will Dissly Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1000/-1450).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1450.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.The Chargers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been atrocious this year, ranking as the worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Chargers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.2 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Will Dissly has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among TEs.After accumulating 20.0 air yards per game last season, Will Dissly has produced significantly less this season, currently sitting at 4.0 per game.Will Dissly's 6.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 27.5.When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the worst in the league this year.
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