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Will Dissly

Will Dissly Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Will Dissly Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3-point underdog in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 10th-most in the NFL.

With an impressive 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) last year, Will Dissly places as one of the leading TEs in the pass game in the league.

Will Dissly ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in an excellent 81.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 79th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers last year (only 55.5 per game on average).

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier conditions this week.

The model projects Will Dissly to be much less involved in his team's pass attack in this game (6.5% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (14.6% in games he has played).

The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league last year in covering pass-catchers.

More Will Dissly Player Props

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