Will Dissly Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Will Dissly

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Will Dissly Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Will Dissly's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 80.8% to 100.0%.
Will Dissly has been among the best tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a terrific 7.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 94th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Will Dissly's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, notching just 6.87 yards-per-target vs a 8.87 mark last year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.