Will Dissly Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Will Dissly

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Will Dissly Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+345/-666).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +404 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +345.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Will Dissly has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 12.1% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Will Dissly's 17.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 11.6.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.