Will Dissly Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Will Dissly

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 3:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Will Dissly Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+375/-765).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -725 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -765.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Will Dissly has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.2% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Will Dissly's 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 11.6.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers project as the 9th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.