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Van Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints

Van Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -720 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -700.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (59.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Tennessee Titans.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 133.3 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.

While Van Jefferson has garnered 6.1% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Tennessee's offense near the goal line in this game at 12.8%.

Van Jefferson has totaled many more air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).

The Saints safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Titans this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.

Van Jefferson's 53.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a material regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 61.5% rate.

With a very bad rate of only 0.07 per game through the air (22nd percentile), Van Jefferson rates as one of the bottom receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs this year.

More Van Jefferson Player Props

Van Jefferson TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 17

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints

Van Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17