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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Van Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-700).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +550 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +550.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Titans.
  • While Van Jefferson has received 7.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Tennessee's pass game near the goal line in this contest at 12.4%.
  • After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last season, Van Jefferson has shown good development this season, now boasting 42.0 per game.
  • Van Jefferson's 29.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 22.0.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Titans to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
  • Van Jefferson's 51.7% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 61.5% figure.
  • This year, the daunting Chiefs defense has given up a paltry 0.64 passing touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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