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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Titans being a giant -9.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The predictive model expects Van Jefferson to be much more involved in his team's passing attack in this game (17.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.9% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Van Jefferson's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 61.5% to 57.8%.
  • The Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59.9%) to wideouts this year (59.9%).
  • The Los Angeles cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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