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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+146/-187).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -177 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -187.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 132.7 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 10th-least pass-focused team in football (58.7% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Tennessee Titans.
  • The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Titans this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.
  • Van Jefferson's 53.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a material regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 61.5% rate.

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