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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Van Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Titans are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Titans offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.55 seconds per play.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (59.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Titans.
  • Van Jefferson has been used less as a potential target this season (50.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (65.7%).
  • Van Jefferson's 52.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a remarkable regression in his receiving skills over last year's 61.5% mark.
  • The Texans pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (56.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (56.9%).
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston's unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

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