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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -12.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (36.1 per game) this year.
  • After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last year, Van Jefferson has shown good development this year, now pacing 35.0 per game.
  • This year, the poor San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded a whopping 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are predicted by the model to call only 62.2 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week.
  • Van Jefferson's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 61.5% to 56.0%.
  • With a feeble 6.3 adjusted yards per target (11th percentile) this year, Van Jefferson has been among the worst pass-catching WRs in the league.
  • Van Jefferson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys a meaningful regression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 3.3% mark.

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