Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Van Jefferson has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this season (8.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.1%).
After totaling 63.0 air yards per game last year, Van Jefferson has gotten worse this year, currently pacing 48.0 per game.
Van Jefferson's 9.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a material reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 39.0 figure.
Van Jefferson comes in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a measly 51.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 20th percentile among WRs