Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack this week (19.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.4% in games he has played).
Van Jefferson's receiving efficiency has been refined this year, compiling 8.92 yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.28 figure last year.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has struggled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
Van Jefferson has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (74.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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