Van Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+374/-761).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -695 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -761.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Van Jefferson has posted a monstrous 67.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among WRs.
Van Jefferson ranks in the 77th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.29 per game.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has afforded their QB 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Van Jefferson has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 55.1% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile among WRs
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.1%) to WRs this year (62.1%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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