Van Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+391/-822).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -523 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -822.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Van Jefferson has compiled a monstrous 70.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Van Jefferson grades out in the 75th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.27 per game.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to be a less important option in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (7.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Van Jefferson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in just 52.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 3rd percentile among wideouts

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