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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Tyreek Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+132/-154).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +136 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.

With a remarkable 22.7% Red Zone Target Share (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Tyreek Hill stands as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the end zone in football.

When talking about air yards, Tyreek Hill grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 92.0 per game.

Tyreek Hill has been in the 91st percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 64.2 mark since the start of last season.

Tyreek Hill ranks in the 76th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.25 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Tyreek Hill's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 67.0% to 61.9%.

More Tyreek Hill Player Props

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