Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 92.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 92.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 92.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this season (33.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (26.6%).
Tyreek Hill has compiled far more air yards this season (135.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (106.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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