Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 95.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to earn 12.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this season (32.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.9%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

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